Field Report·Market Consolidation·2015–2026

The quiet death of small software.

Independent software didn’t lose on product. It lost to a playbook, the same one that emptied out main-street pharmacies, taxi fleets, and local news: subsidize, absorb, strip, extract. Deep wallets don’t have to out-build you. They only have to outlast you.

800+ Startups acquired by the five largest tech platforms
1,000+ Small software firms held by a single serial acquirer
~76% Of U.S. buyouts are now add-on roll-up deals
13M Users Wunderlist had when it was shut down anyway

01The playbook. Every time.

Four moves, run in order. Swap “software” for retail, rideshare, or groceries and the script doesn’t change.

Undercut

Sell below cost, bundle for free, or give it away. Loss is the weapon. The balance sheet absorbs what the small shop can’t.

Weapon: loss leader

Absorb

Buy whatever survives the price war. Founders sell tired, cheap, and out of options, often at 3–5× earnings.

Weapon: acquisition

Strip

Sunset the product, keep the engineers, the data, and the patents. The “acqui-hire” leaves customers holding nothing.

Weapon: shutdown

Extract

With alternatives gone, raise prices, cut support, and coast. Nobody left to switch to. Nobody left to compete with.

Weapon: monopoly rent

02Case files.

Beloved, profitable, growing, and killed anyway. Success was not a defense.

Acquired 2015 · Killed 2020

Wunderlist

13 million users, a billion tasks, Apple’s App of the Year pedigree. Bought for a reported nine figures, milked for features, then retired.

Absorbed into a bundle
Acquired 2020 · Killed 2023

Dark Sky

The best weather app on the market. Android version axed within days; rival apps cut off from its data; iOS app gone by 2023.

Competition, deleted
Acquired 2011 · Killed 2025

Skype

The dominant name in internet calling. A decade of neglect, redesigns, and bundling later, it was quietly switched off.

Starved, then sunset

03The math behind it.

Roll-ups buy small companies cheap and sell the pile dear. The spread is the whole business model. The product is incidental.

~1.5–2× WHAT THEY PAY YOU 5.8× WHAT THE PILE SELLS FOR 6.4× MEDIAN PAID, 2021 PEAK 3.2× MEDIAN PAID, 2026
Left: the roll-up spread (acquire small, exit consolidated). Right: the hangover (revenue multiples paid for software have halved since the 2021 buying spree). Sources: 451 Research M&A KnowledgeBase; Aventis Advisors software valuation data.

04You’ve seen this before.

Different decade, different storefront, same ending. Concentration isn’t a software problem. Software is just the latest address.

  • Local bookstore → one everything store
  • Taxi fleet → two apps
  • Corner pharmacy → three chains
  • Local newsroom → two ad platforms
  • Indie software → the portfolio

Independent software didn’t die. It was converted.

Into acqui-hired talent, portfolio line items, and sunset products whose best features live on inside someone else’s bundle. The alternative isn’t nostalgia. It’s ownership: tools you run, on your infrastructure, that nobody can shut down out from under you.

None of this is an argument against selling a company. It’s an argument against a market where selling is the only way to survive.

This is why the shop exists.

Read the rest of the story